Clashing Goals for 2050

Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are hogging the spotlight these days. Opinions are converging to some degree on how much they must be reduced, and by when -- but there is virtually no agreement on how to achieve such reductions.

On the one hand, there are promises/goals/commitments to cut emissions by 2050. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, reported that prospects are so serious that GHG must be cut by 80% by that date, and it chose 1990 as the reference point. The recent G-8 conference could only agree on 50% reduction in 2050 with no specific baseline; and that was just a goal. Earlier, the European Union set a worldwide goal of 60% decrease by 2050, with 1990 as the baseline; and, recognizing that emerging nations need more latitude, it called for an 80% reduction by industrialized nations.

On the other hand, it is well established that autos are second only to coal-fired power plants as the source of today's GHG. And it is predicted that China and India will add over a billion cars in 2050 -- more than there are in the entire world today! This is credible when China declares new highways a top national priority and India's biggest conglomerate introduces a new car selling for just $2500.

A recent Op-Ed piece in the New York Times focused on the trend in India and pleaded for them NOT to emulate the USA. Rather, he urges them to introduce drastically better mass transit, "leapfrogging" American technology as they have already done with cell phones. That ties in nicely with our claim that Project 21 could avoid hundreds of millions of cars in China and India. As a bonus, it would do a lot for their miserable street congestion and local air pollution.